NHS waiting list reaches highest numbers in nearly a year as think tank warns the government’s target to treat 92% of pathways by 2029 is “almost certainly unachievable”.
A recent report from the Institute for Government warns that competing demands on the NHS will prevent the Labour government from meeting its 2029 waiting time pledge, a caution issued just days before today’s Referral-to-Treatment Waiting Times figures revealed a continued rise in the backlog.
The latest data shows open pathways, cases where patients are still awaiting the start of treatment, have climbed to 7.38 million, the highest total since October 2025. Despite the growing list, the proportion of pathways completed within the 18-week target rose to 65.8%, up from 65.2% the previous month and 61.8% a year earlier.
By the end of September, patients were waiting an average of 12.2 weeks from referral to treatment, though 1.6% of pathways had waited more than a year.
The Polimapper team has visualised the latest NHS England waiting times data at the Integrated Care Board (ICB) level, excluding missing trusts.
Despite a slight month-on-month dip, NHS Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly ICB remains the top-performing board, closing 72.3% of pathways within the 18-week target. Conversely, NHS Essex ICB continues to lag behind as the only board to close fewer than 60% of pathways on time.
Geodata context
Research from the Institute for Government notes that while the NHS met the government’s interim target of closing 65% of pathways within 18 weeks, current trends suggest the headline 2029 target of 92% will be missed by a wide margin, with performance projected to reach just 79%.
As the report concludes, this “focus on electives also comes at the expense of other important areas of NHS performance and […] is making it harder for the government to achieve its wider goals for the system, such as moving care into the community. There is little point, therefore, in pushing the service to hit an unachievable target while sacrificing other goals.”
