NHS Wales targets far from being met as Senedd election looms.
Despite measurable progress over the past year, NHS Wales is set to miss key performance targets ahead of the upcoming election. These goals included a significant reduction of 200,000 people from waiting lists and a mandate to ensure 95% of patient pathways are completed within 26 weeks.
Polimapper has mapped the latest NHS waiting times against the new Senedd constituency boundaries. This visualisation highlights critical pressure points for incoming Members of the Senedd (MSs) and offers a data-driven comparison between current performance and the promises made by competing political parties.
New Referral to Treatment waiting times figures for February 2026 in Wales show the highest rate of pathways closed within the 26-week target since the pandemic, at 63.6%. The number of patients waiting to start treatment stood at just under 688,000 in February.
NHS Wales sets out that 95% of patients referred to the service should start treatment within 26 weeks, while those with complex care needs or those who choose to wait longer should be seen within 36 weeks.
On average, patients in Wales were waiting 16.7 weeks in February. This was highest in the Cardiff and Vale University Health Board at 20.8 weeks, affecting Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf, Caerdydd Penarth, and Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg constituencies.
Additionally, the Polimapper analysis shows that constituencies in Cardiff are the furthest from meeting the 95% target, with just 58% of patients being seen within 26 weeks.
In contrast, the Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd constituency registers a significantly higher rate than all other areas, with 89.2% of pathways closed on time and a median waiting time of only 5.8 weeks.
Geodata context
Ahead of the Senedd elections, the Labour party has stated it would meet the 26-week waiting time target by the end of the next Senedd government. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have pledged to declare a health emergency to focus resources on the service and clear waiting time backlogs by 2030.
The Royal College of Surgeons has warned that patients continue to wait too long for surgery when reacting to the data.
Professor Jon Barry, Director in Wales at the Royal College of Surgeons of England (RCS England): “Behind today’s figures, the last before the Senedd election, are thousands of people still waiting for surgery, living with pain, uncertainty, and the risk that their condition will deteriorate. For many patients and families, these delays affect daily life, work, and wellbeing.”
“Progress has been made, but not at the pace patients need, and this is the challenge the next Welsh Government will face.”
“Whoever forms the next Welsh Government must be ready to deliver real improvement on waiting times. Patients in Wales have been waiting far too long for an NHS they can rely on to help them get on with their lives.”
